IvyArcIvyArc
3

Teaching Moment

3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 3 · OR 75

Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 11916/05C6C5 @ Thistledown 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 6f 117 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 71 par6/07C5OR 71C5 @ Thistledown 05/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 71 par5/08C5OR 71C5 @ Thistledown 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m 115 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 75 par17/09C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-08-05Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-07-06Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-05-16Thistledown?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/056/075/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 62/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
06/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
05/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
17/09/20264th15/261%40%-0.21