5
Awaythelad
9yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 115
Worcester · CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Newbury | 4 | −1 | ||
| 2025-11-21 | Ascot | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Cheltenham | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2025-04-05 | Chepstow | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-03-03 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-01-24 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 74/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2024 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 31/01/2024 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/04/2024 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 12/11/2024 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 03/12/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 24/01/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 03/03/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/04/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |