Karnaval Point

6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 122

Worcester · CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength28%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C2.8

Today: 3

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-25	Worcester	2	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-09-10	Worcester	2	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-08-31	Cartmel	3	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-26	Uttoxeter	2	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-07-07	Uttoxeter	4	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-04	Uttoxeter	4	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength10%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/03/2026	6th	11/4	86%	38%	-0.48
13/04/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
22/05/2026	1st	11/1	42%	100%	+0.58
04/06/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	50%	-0.36
07/07/2026	1st	5/4	93%	100%	+0.07
26/07/2026	6th	11/2	71%	38%	-0.34
31/08/2026	3rd	8/1	58%	67%	+0.09
10/09/2026	5th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82
25/09/2026	6th	25/1	0%	55%	+0.55