3
King Roly
7yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 125
Worcester · CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 1 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Market Rasen | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Stratford | 4 | −1 | ||
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |