Draco Malfoy
6yo Gelding · 12-1 · OR 121
Worcester · CopyBet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Ayr | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-03-07 | Sandown | 1 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-01-26 | Hereford | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Huntingdon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-02-06 | Huntingdon | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2024 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 02/01/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 06/02/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 26/01/2026 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 07/03/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |