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10

Crystalate

4yo Filly · 10-10

Worcester · Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite NH Flat Race (Conditionals/Amateurs) (GBB Race) · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Crystal Ocean filly who shaped even better than first time out for Tom Weston when finishing joint second in a 10-runner Southwell bumper in May, looking unlucky not to win having been repeatedly hampered. Fancied to gain compensation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ludlow 15/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m7f169y Goo 15615/0145 @ Southwell 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m7f182y Gd 15011/055projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-11Southwell52nd3rd−1
2026-01-15Ludlow44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0111/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -71.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20264th25/10%70%+0.70
11/05/20262nd7/491%89%-0.02