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Affection

3yo Filly · 10-12

Worcester · CopyBet Supporting UK Horse Racing Fillies' Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran close to her fairly useful best on stable debut on the Flat but did little to encourage sent hurdling at Newton Abbot back in June. Has finished down the field in 4 Flat handicaps since (latest in first-time cheekpieces) so best watched for now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS21/022C5 @ Lyon La Soie 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 128C5 @ Salon-De-Provence 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m3f204y GS 13216/04C54 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m1f201y Sft 131 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newton Abbot 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 14923/0644 @ Nottingham 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 80 · 1m2f50y Goo 133 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Kempton 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 77 · 1m3f219y Sta 130 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 77 par26/084OR 775 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m4f1y Std 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Southwell 24/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m3f24y Std 134 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 73 par24/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Southwell59th10th−1
2026-09-12Lingfield56th7th−1
2026-08-26Kempton46th6th0
2026-07-30Nottingham44th4th0
2026-06-23Newton Abbot42nd2nd0
2026-06-09Salisbury43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/029/0626/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/02/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
11/03/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
16/04/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
09/06/20263rd33/10%67%+0.67
23/06/20262nd3/184%50%-0.34
30/07/20264th40/10%25%+0.25
26/08/20266th66/10%29%+0.29
12/09/20266th33/10%38%+0.38
24/09/20269th33/10%27%+0.27