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Cowboy Casanova

5yo Gelding · 11-4

Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 2m

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Walk In The Park gelding who finished third on sole outing in points and shaped well on all 3 bumper starts earlier in the year, exceeding expectations when third of 10 at the Punchestown Festival (2m, good to soft) back in late-April. Interesting hurdling debutant.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 15/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 15915/0155 @ Uttoxeter 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m7f168y GS 15628/035C0 @ Punchestown 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m90y Yie 16130/04C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-30Punchestown?3rd3rd0
2026-03-28Uttoxeter53rd4th−1
2026-01-15Newcastle52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0128/0330/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +31.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20262nd4/179%93%+0.14
28/03/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
30/04/20263rd50/10%78%+0.78