4
Lexington Wood
5yo Gelding · 11-4
Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kempton | 1 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Punchestown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Punchestown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 57/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength95%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 68% | 0.00 |
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 92% | -0.05 |