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11

Sheezer Dancer

5yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 113

Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2) · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

59%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Third in a big-field Cheltenham bumper last spring and back to something like hurdling debut form when third at Kempton in February. That race worked out quite well and she sets a pretty high standard on her return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Cheltenham 17/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR - · 2m179y Gd 148 · HIGHER CLASS17/0422 @ Newbury 06/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 2m69y GS 154 · HIGHER CLASS6/1121 @ Newbury 29/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m69y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS29/1114 @ Kempton 02/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 2m Goo 1582/024projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-02Kempton43rd3rd0
2025-11-29Newbury18th4th+3
2025-11-06Newbury26th4th+2
2025-04-17Cheltenham23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/046/1129/112/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 68/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20253rd3/184%88%+0.04
06/11/20256th20/10%58%+0.58
29/11/20258th40/10%13%+0.13
02/02/20263rd6/168%87%+0.18