Billy Butcher
8yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 87
Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2024-10-09 | Ludlow | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-06-26 | Worcester | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2024-04-24 | Ludlow | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2024-01-15 | Hereford | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2023-11-18 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2023 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 15/01/2024 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 24/04/2024 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/06/2024 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 09/10/2024 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |