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Calibos

4yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 93

Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair 1¼m Flat winner who showed an aptitude for hurdling when fourth of 8 on stable debut at Huntingdon in early-March. Fared best of the also-rans without progressing from that initial effort at Market Rasen in May and more realistic chance now making a quick switch to handicap company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m3f209y GS 127 · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 61 par30/066OR 616 @ Chepstow 17/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 60 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Windsor 28/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 61 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark28/07/2025 · OR 61 par28/076OR 615 @ Windsor 04/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 61 · 1m2f Goo 130 · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 61 par5 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 68 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 68 par22/085OR 685 @ Salisbury 12/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 68 · 1m1f201y Sft 133 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m2f37y Goo 134 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 67 par30/095OR 674 @ Huntingdon 01/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f171y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Market Rasen 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m125y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS8/054projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-08Market Rasen43rd2nd+1
2026-03-01Huntingdon44th3rd+1
2025-09-30Bath510th10th0
2025-09-12Salisbury53rd3rd0
2025-08-22Newmarket53rd3rd0
2025-08-04Windsor54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/064/0830/098/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/06/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
17/07/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
28/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
04/08/20254th3/184%25%-0.59
22/08/20253rd11/142%60%+0.18
12/09/20253rd9/276%67%-0.10
30/09/202510th11/142%25%-0.17
01/03/20264th125/10%57%+0.57
08/05/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41