IvyArcIvyArc
10

Estate Planning

5yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 83

Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden. Supported to capitalise on his slipping mark when beaten 17 lengths on return at Stratford in June. Back from further 4 months off with cheekpieces refitted, headgear previously making no difference to this tricky customer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ffos Las 21/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 103 · 1m7f182y Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/03/2025 · OR 103 par21/034OR 1034 @ Chepstow 05/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 103 · 2m11y Gd 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2025 · OR 103 par4 @ Worcester 06/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/05/2025 · OR 102 par6/054OR 1024 @ Ffos Las 16/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 100 · 1m7f182y Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 100 par5 @ Chepstow 21/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 98 · 2m16y Sft 162 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 98 par21/115OR 984 @ Ludlow 03/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 95 · 1m7f169y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 95 par4 @ Chepstow 27/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 92 · 2m16y GS 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 92 par27/124OR 925 @ Sedgefield 04/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 88 · 2m178y Goo 156 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Stratford 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 85 · 2m70y Goo 161 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 85 par16/065OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-16Stratford54th4th0
2026-02-04Sedgefield55th5th0
2025-12-27Chepstow411th10th+1
2025-12-03Ludlow44th3rd+1
2025-11-21Chepstow58th8th0
2025-10-16Ffos Las46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0316/1027/1216/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20253rd6/168%75%+0.07
05/04/20253rd9/276%33%-0.43
06/05/20257th9/153%25%-0.28
16/10/20256th10/147%17%-0.31
21/11/20258th50/10%36%+0.36
03/12/20254th9/276%40%-0.36
27/12/202511th50/10%17%+0.17
04/02/20265th17/255%43%-0.12
16/06/20264th5/174%73%-0.01