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4

I Heard A Rumour

5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 89

Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Novices' Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Chasing type on appearance and related to winners but no more than minor promise in trio of qualifying hurdle runs during second half of last season. Switch to handicaps in her favour on return and no surprise to see her do better for her leading yard (second string on jockey bookings).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 2m16y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS21/0244 @ Wetherby 17/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 2m3f154y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS17/034projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-17Wetherby44th3rd+1
2026-02-21Chepstow47th6th+1
2026-02-13Chepstow4+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0217/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +15.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/02/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
17/03/20264th40/10%40%+0.40