4
Fighting Falcon
5yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 105
Worcester · CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Southwell | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-16 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | BHA95 | −6 | ||
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | BHA95 | 5th | 12th | −6 |
| 2025-12-06 | Navan | ? | 9th | 14th | −4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Punchestown | ? | 8th | 13th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 31/12/2024 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/12/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |