5
Not At That Price
6yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 105
Worcester · CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Ludlow | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Ludlow | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-27 | Warwick | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 23/04/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 15/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |