15
Lorenzo De Medici
7yo Gelding · 8-4
Compiegne · Prix Des Bords De L'oise Handicap · 1m 5f 202y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Compiegne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Dieppe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 03/06/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 79% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 87% | +0.26 |
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 19/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |