4
Tocoa
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Compiegne · Prix De Verberie Stakes · 1m 208y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |