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I Did The Math

6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 47

Fairmount Park · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 19/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 55 · 1m 126 · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 55 par19/08C6OR 55C6 @ Fairmount Park 30/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 57 · 5f110y 126 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 57 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 18/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 57 · 6f 126 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 57 par18/10C6OR 57C6 @ Fairmount Park 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 5f 124 · below its mark21/04/2026 · OR 60 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 54 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 54 par12/05C6OR 54C6 @ Fairmount Park 23/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 54 · 1m 124 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 54 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 51 par14/07C6OR 51C6 @ Fairmount Park 04/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 45 · 6f 124 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 45 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m 124 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 45 par25/08C6OR 45projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?5th5th0
2026-08-04Fairmount Park?7th7th0
2026-07-14Fairmount Park?6th6th0
2026-06-23Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2026-05-12Fairmount Park?3rd3rd0
2026-04-21Fairmount Park?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0821/0414/0725/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/08/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
30/09/20256th14/126%17%-0.10
18/10/20256th14/126%17%-0.10
21/04/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
12/05/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
23/06/20264th6/168%25%-0.43
14/07/20266th40/10%29%+0.29
04/08/20267th40/10%45%+0.45
25/08/20265th25/10%56%+0.56