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3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 57
Fairmount Park · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/08/2026 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |