3
Turtle Pace
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 60
Fairmount Park · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |