5
Scapiture
7yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 51
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-17 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-08-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-07-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-05-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2024-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2023-12-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2022 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 25/07/2023 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 31/10/2023 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/12/2023 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 04/01/2024 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 28/05/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 30/07/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 27/08/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 17/06/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |