Bourbon Americana
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |