3
Recause
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 65
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-17 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-05-31 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-09-17 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/06/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |