5
Taxday Peyton
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 64
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-07-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 30/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |