3
Dublin Drop
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength89%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |