1
Bright Spark
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 100
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 1m 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/7
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Lone Star | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength93%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 19/01/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |