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2

Fire Bryan

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 81

Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 1m 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Oaklawn Park 28/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 79 par28/12C8OR 79C8 @ Oaklawn Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m 118 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 12/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 82 par12/03C8OR 82C8 @ Oaklawn Park 10/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 72 · 6f 119 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 72 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 67 · 1m Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 67 par16/05C6OR 67C6 @ Fairmount Park 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 75 par20/06C6OR 75C7 @ Fairmount Park 04/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 75 · 1m2f 126 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 75 parC7 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 1m4f 124 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 80 par25/08C7OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-08-04Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-20Fairmount Park?4th3rd+1
2026-05-30Fairmount Park?2nd1st+1
2026-05-16Fairmount Park?1st0th+1
2026-04-10Oaklawn Park?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1210/0420/0625/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20259th25/10%11%+0.11
07/02/202611th33/10%9%+0.09
12/03/20268th33/10%0%0.00
10/04/20267th40/10%40%+0.40
16/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
30/05/20262nd9/276%90%+0.14
20/06/20264th11/486%67%-0.19
04/08/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19
25/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21