5
Nip N Tuck
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 1m 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |