Chasing Gray
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 63
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 01/01/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/04/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 18% | -0.50 |
| 31/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |