5
Don't Tell Kim
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 72
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-09-06 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |