9
El Jovero
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 59
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 28/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 01/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |