Naughton
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 70
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-08-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |