7
Bill's Honor
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 80
Fairmount Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-07-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2023 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 07/11/2023 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 02/06/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/06/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 21/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |