4
On The Money Red
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 78
Fairmount Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-07-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 24/06/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 28/10/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |