5
Pontus
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Fairmount Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 19/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |