3
Red Moscato
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 83
Fairmount Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |