2
Dream On Cara
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |