6
Lipan Law
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/12/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |