1
Renaissance Man
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 63
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |