3
Toscano
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 4
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 09/01/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 23/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |