5
Cast A Coin
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |