IvyArcIvyArc
6

Guilty

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81

Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 23/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11923/07C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 27 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 27 parC6 @ Aqueduct 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 61 par14/11C6OR 61C6 @ Aqueduct 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 66 parC5 @ Aqueduct 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 67 · 7f 126 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 67 par18/04C5OR 67C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 6f Slo 126 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 64 parC5 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 65 par4/07C5OR 65C5 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 67 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 6f 124 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 75 par25/08C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-07-25Saratoga?8th8th0
2026-07-04Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-05-25Belmont At The Big A?2nd5th−3
2026-04-18Aqueduct?7th7th0
2026-03-22Aqueduct?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0722/034/0725/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20259th16/116%0%-0.16
19/09/20252nd20/10%86%+0.86
14/11/20256th5/174%17%-0.57
22/03/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
18/04/20267th4/179%0%-0.79
25/05/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
04/07/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
25/07/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
25/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07