4
Kismeholdmethrlme
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |