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4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |