Follow Your Arrow
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 1/2 | 97% | 40% | -0.57 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |