4

Courageoous Oh La

7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 71

Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength52%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Finger Lakes 20/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 83 · 6f 122 · below its mark20/08/2025 · OR 83 par20/08C8OR 83C8 @ Finger Lakes 08/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 77 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark08/09/2025 · OR 77 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 30/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 76 · 6f 122 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 76 par30/09C8OR 76C8 @ Finger Lakes 17/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 73 · 5f110y Slo 124 · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 73 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 73 · 4f110y 124 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 73 par28/04C8OR 73C8 @ Finger Lakes 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 5f110y Fas 124 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 70 parC7 @ Finger Lakes 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 71 par15/07C7OR 71C7 @ Finger Lakes 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 70 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 70 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 71 · 5f110y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 71 par31/08C5OR 71projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3
2026-08-12Finger Lakes?5th4th+1
2026-07-15Finger Lakes?3rd2nd+1
2026-06-02Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-04-28Finger Lakes?5th5th0
2025-11-17Finger Lakes?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0817/1115/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength73%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20259th13/266%0%-0.66
08/09/20253rd12/137%67%+0.30
30/09/20257th8/158%14%-0.44
17/11/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
28/04/20265th6/168%0%-0.68
02/06/20262nd8/158%80%+0.22
15/07/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
12/08/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
31/08/20265th8/158%33%-0.25