3
Paint The Line
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength46%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 17/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |