2
The Institute
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |