4
Paradise Valley
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 99
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |